DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT STRATEGY 

Tips, advice and how to draft the best possible players to maximize your chances for Draft Kings, FanDuel or any other Daily Fantasy Football platform.

Draft Strategy Reports

Variance Report

Provides you with the rank variance between offense and defense on each phase of the game, pass, run, receiving, and scoring.

Double Duty Report

Shows which players are playing on the run and receiving phase of the game, yards/scoring. 

Game Matchup Report

This is our awesome matchup report.  We breakdown the game as described above and we also show you yards and scoring probability.

DRAFTKINGS STRATEGY

Playing Daily Fantasy Football on DraftKigns is a game of skill and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.  Below you will find a guide of sorts to your DraftKings strategy and we hope you win the big prize.

Time is of the essence

If you think you can wake up on Sunday morning and draft your team to play in the DraftKings $1million prize contest, you're risking being in the bottom or coming dead last.  It doesn't matter how much you know football, you have to allow plenty of time to research, plan, review and repeat, repeat and repeat. 

Know Injuries

Just like we state on players designated a Q or "Questionable", it's important that you understand, research and analyze players that are returning from an injury and those that are a "game-time decision".  Remember Todd Gurley in the 2018 Super Bowl Vs. the Patriots?  Well, he was cleared to return only as a decoy and that hurts.

Rotowire has a great inactives listing and remembers it's an hour before kickoff that teams have to announce who's in and who's out.  https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php

Here's what it looks like before the announcement of injured players or inactive.

 

Draft until 10am (PST)

Don't lock up your draft picks days before - DFS is a game of decision making & analysis until the end.  And even then on DraftKings, you can change your players that play in the afternoon games for other players that play in the late games as well.

Draft until 1pm (PST)

As stated above, review your draft picks for those that play in the afternoon and un-draft them if you need to or their status may have changed to Questionable or removed from the Q list.

Plan: Use a Daily Fantasy Football Calculator

Thinks of our Daily Fantasy Football Calculator as a "Draft Kit", "Mock Draft" or "Cheat Sheet" generator as it allows you to plan, organize and review your draft picks.  Plan, Plan, Research, go back to the drawing table and draft again until you have validated your decision.

Stats to Know: Vegas Score Predictions

Those Vegas bookmakers have been in business for years for a reason and most of the time their game scoring predictions are pretty accurate.  I look at the odds on Covers.com and SportsBook.com  as part of my DFS strategy.

Stats to Know: Variance In Rankings

Know your rankings.  When you see an offense that is ranked 20th, well you can research further and see that in the Pass phase they are ranked 7th, in the run game 18th and in the receiving 3rd (just made these numbers up) and they are facing a defense that is ranked 10th overall, but 29th against the pass and 32nd vs the run and receiving.  This translates to a variance of -22 in the passing game, -14 in the run game and -29 in the receiving game.  And with this, I would draft the QB and WR/TE from this team.  The higher the variance, the better.

Stats to Know: Player Usage Percentage

n Daily Fantasy Football there are many stats to consider, but nothing is more critical than the “PLAYER USAGE” OR “DISTRIBUTION PERCENTAGE” by a player and this is what this report gives you by each phase of the game, including Run, Receiving and Touchdowns also by type – Run or Receiving TD.

Know the DraftKings Scoring Rules

NFL Classic

In salary cap contests, participants will create a lineup by selecting players listed in the Player Pool.

Contest results will be determined by the total points accumulated by each individual lineup entry (scoring rules summarized below).

Participation in each contest must be made only as specified in the Terms of Use. Failure to comply with these Terms of Use will result in disqualification and, if applicable, prize forfeiture.

 

Scoring

Offense

Passing TD

+4 Pts

25 Passing Yards

+1 Pt (+0.04 Pts/ Yards)

300+ Yard Passing Game

+3 Pts

Interception

-1 Pt

Rushing TD

+6 Pts

10 Rushing Yards

+1 Pt (+0.1 Pts/Yard)

100+ Yard Rushing Game

+3 Pts

Receiving TD

+6 Pts

10 Receiving Yards

+1 Pt (+0.1 Pts/Yard)

100+ Receiving Yard Game

+3 Pts

Reception

+1 Pt

Punt/Kickoff/FG Return for TD

+6 Pts

Fumble Lost

-1 Pt

2 Pt Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch)

+2 Pts

Offensive Fumble Recovery TD

+6 Pts

 

Defense

Sack

+1 Pt

Interception

+2 Pts

Fumble Recovery

+2 Pts

Punt/Kickoff/FG Return for TD

+6 Pts

Interception Return TD

+6 Pts

Fumble Recovery TD

+6 Pts

Blocked Punt or FG Return TD

+6 Pts

Safety

+2 Pts

Blocked Kick

+2 Pts

2 Pt Conversion/Extra Point Return

+2 Pts

0 Points Allowed

+10 Pts

1 – 6 Points Allowed

+7 Pts

7 – 13 Points Allowed

+4 Pts

14 – 20 Points Allowed

+1 Pt

21 – 27 Points Allowed

+0 Pts

28 – 34 Points Allowed

-1 Pt

35+ Points Allowed

-4 Pts

Scoring Notes

  • Points Allowed (PA) only includes points surrendered while DST is on the field – doesn’t include points given up by the team’s offense (e.g. points off offensive turnovers).
  • The following scoring plays will result in Points Allowed by your Defense/Special Teams:
    • Rushing TDs, Passing TDs, Offensive Fumble Recovery TDs, Punt Return TDs, Kick Return TDs, FG Return TDs, Blocked FG TDs, Blocked Punt TDs
    • 2pt conversions
    • 2 Point Conversion/Extra-point Returns
    • Extra-points
    • Field-goals
  • A fumble recovery will be awarded to a Defense/Special Teams if the team’s offense recovers a fumble by the opposing defense (e.g. after an offensive turnover).

 

Lineup Requirements

Lineups will consist of 9 players and must include players from at least 2 different NFL games. The 9 Roster positions are:

1

QB

2

RB

3

WR

1

TE

1

FLEX

(RB/WR/TE)

1

DST

What Does Q Mean?

It is very important that you understand that Q means "QUESTIONNABLE", which means tred lightly.  Which means the player is:

A) Really getting over an injury

B) The coach is playing mind games

C) Is ready to play

D) All of the above

If you selected D, you're right.  No one knows until game time, so again tread lightly.  Look up the player in the news, see what NFL analyst is saying and look at local news - sometimes they may know more than NFL experts.  Remember Tood Gurly in the 2018 playoffs, great for 1 game, bad for one and absent form the Super Bowl.

Review the depth chart for each team

Knowing the depth chart of a team is very important as you will be able to find players that may have a bigger role than a starter or if the starter is injured that backup player may get the same usage percentage as the starter.

Look at the defense's depth chart as well as it will paint a very clear picture of whose on the team as you may forget who is where.

Are you really going to bet against FHOF's or MVP's?

A not so new contest in DFS is "Captain's Mode" so your options may be Aaron Rodgers or Mitchell Trubinsky and if you're a Bears fan the temptation to pick your QB is there, but are you really going to beat against Aaron Rodgers a future Hall of Famer, while Mitch is just getting started.  If you lean to take a newbie, think it over.  

Apply the same thinking to MVPs. 

 

Take your ego and emotions and throw them out

 

I'm a Giants fan and when I first got started playing DFS it was touch to pick a defense that would be going against the Giants.  It gets easier as you go and makes the game a lot more interesting. Now, I have no such issues. Remove your ego and emotions and remember that you're playing for a big prize and nothing else matters.

Time is of the essence

If you think you can wake up on Sunday morning and draft your team to play in the DraftKings $1million prize contest, you're risking being in the bottom or coming dead last.  It doesn't matter how much you know football, you have to allow plenty of time to research, plan, review and repeat, repeat and repeat. 

Know Injuries

Just like we state on players designated a Q or "Questionable", it's important that you understand, research and analyze players that are returning from an injury and those that are a "game-time decision".  Remember Todd Gurley in the 2018 Super Bowl Vs. the Patriots?  Well, he was cleared to return only as a decoy and that hurts.

Rotowire has a great inactives listing and remembers it's an hour before kickoff that teams have to announce who's in and who's out.  https://www.rotowire.com/football/lineups.php

Here's what it looks like before the announcement of injured players or inactive.

 

Draft until 10am (PST)

Don't lock up your draft picks days before - DFS is a game of decision making & analysis until the end.  And even then on DraftKings, you can change your players that play in the afternoon games for other players that play in the late games as well.

Draft until 1pm (PST)

As stated above, review your draft picks for those that play in the afternoon and un-draft them if you need to or their status may have changed to Questionable or removed from the Q list.

Plan: Use a Daily Fantasy Football Calculator

Thinks of our Daily Fantasy Football Calculator as a "Draft Kit", "Mock Draft" or "Cheat Sheet" generator as it allows you to plan, organize and review your draft picks.  Plan, Plan, Research, go back to the drawing table and draft again until you have validated your decision.

Stats to Know: Vegas Score Predictions

Those Vegas bookmakers have been in business for years for a reason and most of the time their game scoring predictions are pretty accurate.  I look at the odds on Covers.com and SportsBook.com  as part of my DFS strategy.

Stats to Know: Variance In Rankings

Know your rankings.  When you see an offense that is ranked 20th, well you can research further and see that in the Pass phase they are ranked 7th, in the run game 18th and in the receiving 3rd (just made these numbers up) and they are facing a defense that is ranked 10th overall, but 29th against the pass and 32nd vs the run and receiving.  This translates to a variance of -22 in the passing game, -14 in the run game and -29 in the receiving game.  And with this, I would draft the QB and WR/TE from this team.  The higher the variance, the better.

Stats to Know: Player Usage Percentage

n Daily Fantasy Football there are many stats to consider, but nothing is more critical than the “PLAYER USAGE” OR “DISTRIBUTION PERCENTAGE” by a player and this is what this report gives you by each phase of the game, including Run, Receiving and Touchdowns also by type – Run or Receiving TD.

Know the DraftKings Scoring Rules

NFL Classic

In salary cap contests, participants will create a lineup by selecting players listed in the Player Pool.

Contest results will be determined by the total points accumulated by each individual lineup entry (scoring rules summarized below).

Participation in each contest must be made only as specified in the Terms of Use. Failure to comply with these Terms of Use will result in disqualification and, if applicable, prize forfeiture.

 

Scoring

Offense

Passing TD

+4 Pts

25 Passing Yards

+1 Pt (+0.04 Pts/ Yards)

300+ Yard Passing Game

+3 Pts

Interception

-1 Pt

Rushing TD

+6 Pts

10 Rushing Yards

+1 Pt (+0.1 Pts/Yard)

100+ Yard Rushing Game

+3 Pts

Receiving TD

+6 Pts

10 Receiving Yards

+1 Pt (+0.1 Pts/Yard)

100+ Receiving Yard Game

+3 Pts

Reception

+1 Pt

Punt/Kickoff/FG Return for TD

+6 Pts

Fumble Lost

-1 Pt

2 Pt Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch)

+2 Pts

Offensive Fumble Recovery TD

+6 Pts

 

Defense

Sack

+1 Pt

Interception

+2 Pts

Fumble Recovery

+2 Pts

Punt/Kickoff/FG Return for TD

+6 Pts

Interception Return TD

+6 Pts

Fumble Recovery TD

+6 Pts

Blocked Punt or FG Return TD

+6 Pts

Safety

+2 Pts

Blocked Kick

+2 Pts

2 Pt Conversion/Extra Point Return

+2 Pts

0 Points Allowed

+10 Pts

1 – 6 Points Allowed

+7 Pts

7 – 13 Points Allowed

+4 Pts

14 – 20 Points Allowed

+1 Pt

21 – 27 Points Allowed

+0 Pts

28 – 34 Points Allowed

-1 Pt

35+ Points Allowed

-4 Pts

Scoring Notes

  • Points Allowed (PA) only includes points surrendered while DST is on the field – doesn’t include points given up by the team’s offense (e.g. points off offensive turnovers).
  • The following scoring plays will result in Points Allowed by your Defense/Special Teams:
    • Rushing TDs, Passing TDs, Offensive Fumble Recovery TDs, Punt Return TDs, Kick Return TDs, FG Return TDs, Blocked FG TDs, Blocked Punt TDs
    • 2pt conversions
    • 2 Point Conversion/Extra-point Returns
    • Extra-points
    • Field-goals
  • A fumble recovery will be awarded to a Defense/Special Teams if the team’s offense recovers a fumble by the opposing defense (e.g. after an offensive turnover).

 

Lineup Requirements

Lineups will consist of 9 players and must include players from at least 2 different NFL games. The 9 Roster positions are:

1

QB

2

RB

3

WR

1

TE

1

FLEX

(RB/WR/TE)

1

DST

What Does Q Mean?

It is very important that you understand that Q means "QUESTIONNABLE", which means tred lightly.  Which means the player is:

A) Really getting over an injury

B) The coach is playing mind games

C) Is ready to play

D) All of the above

If you selected D, you're right.  No one knows until game time, so again tread lightly.  Look up the player in the news, see what NFL analyst is saying and look at local news - sometimes they may know more than NFL experts.  Remember Tood Gurly in the 2018 playoffs, great for 1 game, bad for one and absent form the Super Bowl.

Review the depth chart for each team

Knowing the depth chart of a team is very important as you will be able to find players that may have a bigger role than a starter or if the starter is injured that backup player may get the same usage percentage as the starter.

Look at the defense's depth chart as well as it will paint a very clear picture of whose on the team as you may forget who is where.

Are you really going to bet against FHOF's or MVP's?

A not so new contest in DFS is "Captain's Mode" so your options may be Aaron Rodgers or Mitchell Trubinsky and if you're a Bears fan the temptation to pick your QB is there, but are you really going to beat against Aaron Rodgers a future Hall of Famer, while Mitch is just getting started.  If you lean to take a newbie, think it over.  

Apply the same thinking to MVPs. 

 

Take your ego and emotions and throw them out

 

I'm a Giants fan and when I first got started playing DFS it was touch to pick a defense that would be going against the Giants.  It gets easier as you go and makes the game a lot more interesting. Now, I have no such issues. Remove your ego and emotions and remember that you're playing for a big prize and nothing else matters.

SAMPLE DFS REPORTS

Below you will find samples of our reports in PDF’s and Excel & Google Sheets format from the 2018 season, but of course, remain the same for the 2019 season.

Schedule Variance Report

These reports give you the VARIANCE between the Offense and Defense in Total Defense, the Pass, Run and Receiving Game as well as Scoring.  You’ll also be able to see the overall ranking of each Defense by the phase of the game as well.  It’s a great report to help you identify which players to draft.

Player Distribution Report

In Daily Fantasy Football there are many stats to consider, but nothing is more critical than the “PLAYER USAGE” OR “DISTRIBUTION PERCENTAGE” by a player and this is what this report gives you by each phase of the game, including Run, Receiving and Touchdowns also by type – Run or Receiving TD.

Team Offense/Defense Yards

Equally important is knowing the team norms when it comes to passing or running?  You want to make sure you draft receivers from a passing team and RB’s from a running team.  This report gives you the total yards for each team on Offense and Defense and the trending percentage they give up.

My Daily Fantasy Football Stats & Analysis Methodology

The Daily Fantasy Football stats & analysis I’ve developed is very simple – BREAKDOWN THE GAME.

You will see this approach in each report, from the report that provides you with a preview of each game – the Matchup Preview report breaks down the home team vs the visiting team at each phase of the game and compares every aspect of the offense and defense as well as provides you with a distribution or usage percentage for each player.

Another example of breaking down the game is our Schedule Variance report where you will find the ranking variance from each matchup Offense Vs. Defense at each phase of the game.

Total Offense Vs. Total Defense and then by the Passing, Running, Receiving and Scoring phases of the game.

One other report, we would like to point out is my self proclaimed world famous “Double Duty” report that shows you players that have distribution percentages in the Run and Receiving phases of the game.  Of course, you want to draft players with a high distribution or usage percentage.

You’ll find other great reports that are for DFS fanatics that are looking for an edge on DraftKings, FanDuel or Yahoo Sports or any other DFS platform.

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